A tropical disturbance located 1,000 miles west of the African coast is expected to undergo gradual organization in the upcoming days. There is a high likelihood that it will develop into a named storm within the next 48 to 72 hours.
Weather models are in a consensus that the storm system will drift westward. Its rate of strengthening, assuming it does develop, is key in determining its specific path, though. If its showers and thunderstorms strengthen and blossom more quickly, it will be a taller system, since it will have more thunderstorms reaching higher into the atmosphere. This would cause the storm to feel high-altitude winds, which would tug the system more quickly to the north, causing it to curve out to sea before reaching the Lesser Antilles.
If the storm organizes more slowly, however, which is appearing increasingly likely, it would continue its westward course. That would eventually spell concerns for the Lesser Antilles. The storm’s effects there could include high seas, torrential rain and damaging winds, but they wouldn’t arrive until later this week.
Storm Intensity Projections
Most computer models project this system will become a tropical storm, with winds of at least 39 mph, by Monday night or Tuesday. Between Wednesday and Friday, they generally forecast it to become a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, although there are a couple that predict it could become a major Category 3 storm. There are theories that warming sea temperatures will make 2023 hurricane forecasting much more difficult.
1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form later today or tonight. This system is forecast to move
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic through the middle part of this week. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.