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Emerging Tropical Storm off Africa: Path, Probability, and Potential Impacts

tropical depression

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring a disturbance in the eastern Atlantic, which is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa. The tropical wave is expected to develop gradually as environmental conditions are favorable.

The Path of the Storm

The system is expected to move generally west to west-northwest at a speed of 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week. The exact location of the tropical wave is currently southwest of Cabo Verde, moving west at 11 mph.

Probability of Becoming a Hurricane

While the formation chance through 48 hours is low, near 10 percent, the formation chance through seven days is now at 50 percent. However, these probabilities can change as the storm develops and more data becomes available.

NHC Official Forecast For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the
early to middle portions of next week while the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.

Potential Impact

At this time, it’s too early to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the disturbance moving into the eastern Atlantic. However, as a train of tropical waves move across the Atlantic, there may be some tropical development in waters surrounding Central America and southern Mexico during the third and fourth week of June, according to AccuWeather.

Other Tropical Waves

In addition to the disturbance off Africa, forecasters are also monitoring four other tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, which includes the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. These waves are located in various regions, from the eastern Atlantic to the Caribbean Sea.

What is a Tropical Wave?

A tropical wave, also known as an easterly wave, is an elongated area of relatively low pressure that moves from east to west across the tropics. To the west of the system, there is often good weather. To the east, though, cloudiness and heavy rain are often found. Tropical waves can lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone.

Preparing for the Storm

While it’s still too early to predict the exact path and impact of the tropical disturbance, it’s always a good idea to be prepared. Stay updated with the latest weather forecasts, especially if you live in a region that’s prone to tropical storms and hurricanes.

The next name for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be Bret. As we continue to monitor these tropical disturbances, we urge all residents to stay vigilant and prepared.

Please note that this is a rapidly evolving situation, and the information provided is based on the latest available data. For the most accurate and up-to-date information, please follow the National Hurricane Center and other official weather forecasting services.

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