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New Poll Shows Weak Haley Support, Possible Swing to Biden Among Anti-Trump Voters

A new Suffolk University/Boston Globe/NBC-10 poll of New Hampshire voters has some bad news for Nikki Haley and some potentially good news for President Biden.

New Hampshire Poll Could be Good News For BidenPhoto

When asked if a vote for Haley signifies real support for her as a candidate, responders indicated that a large percentage of Haley votes are really just votes against Trump.
Poll Question: Regarding your first choice[Haley], is it more a vote FOR Nikki Haley or Against Donald Trump?

  • FOR Nikki Haley: 46.93%
  • AGAINST Donald Trump: 46.37%
  • Undecided: 12 votes 6.70%

The indication that a significant portion of votes for Nikki Haley are actually votes against Donald Trump, rather than genuine support for Haley, could be a bad omen for her in a general election for several reasons:

  • Lack of a Solid Support Base: The essence of a successful political campaign is building a solid base of supporters who are committed to the candidate’s vision and policies. If a large percentage of Haley’s votes are primarily anti-Trump rather than pro-Haley, it suggests she lacks a strong, dedicated support base. This could be detrimental in a general election where enthusiastic support is crucial for voter turnout and campaign momentum.
  • Vulnerability to Opponent’s Campaign Strategy: If Haley’s support is largely contingent on opposition to Trump, her campaign becomes vulnerable to shifts in her opponent’s strategy. For instance, if Trump were to withdraw or lose his influence, those anti-Trump voters might not remain with Haley, especially if they don’t align with her policies or if another candidate better captures their interests.
  • Difficulty in Message Resonance: A campaign that gains traction primarily through opposition to another candidate may struggle to communicate its own positive message and vision. This can make it challenging for Haley to resonate with voters on her own merits, which is essential in a general election where broader appeal is necessary.
  • Potential for Low Commitment Among Supporters: Voters who are motivated by opposition to another candidate rather than genuine enthusiasm for Haley might be less committed. This could result in lower engagement, reduced advocacy among peers, and potentially lower turnout on election day.
  • Challenge in Expanding the Voter Base: In a general election, candidates typically need to expand their appeal beyond their primary voter base. Haley’s reliance on anti-Trump sentiment might not be as effective in a general election, especially among independent voters or those from the opposing party who might be less motivated by intra-party dynamics.

The indication that a large percentage of votes for Nikki Haley are actually votes against Donald Trump, rather than genuine support for Haley, could be a good omen for Joe Biden. Given that the poll also shows Haley getting over 35% of the New Hampshire votes indicates that a lot of voters could lean toward Biden in November.

Indication of a Divided Opposition:

The fact that Haley is receiving over 35% of the New Hampshire votes, primarily as a counter to Trump, points to a divided Republican base. In political contests, a split within the opposition can be a significant advantage. It implies that the Republican vote could be split or diluted, making it easier for Biden to consolidate and expand his own base.

Potential Swing of Anti-Trump Republicans

If a substantial portion of Haley’s support is anti-Trump in nature, these voters might be more inclined to swing towards Biden in the general election, especially if they view him as a more palatable and stable alternative to both Trump and Haley. This could be particularly true for moderate Republicans or independents who are disillusioned with the current state of the Republican party.

This situation highlights a fragmented Republican base, presenting Biden with an opportunity to appeal to a broader spectrum of voters, including moderate Republicans and independents disillusioned with the current state of the GOP. For Haley, it may be an indication that her candidacy is weaker than previously believed.

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